BRICS Newest Member: Venezuela?
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential impacts and factors influencing Venezuela's pursuit of membership in the BRICS bloc and the likelihood of it attaining full membership.
Executive Summary:
Overall assessment for Venezuela joining BRICS in 2024: unlikely.
Seeking alternatives to help assist in crippling domestic crises and sanctions, Venezuela actively pursues joining the BRICS bloc. However, attaining full membership this year remains unlikely due to substantial constraints. Venezuela's economy suffers from hyperinflation exceeding 200%, decaying infrastructure, and systemic shortages as oil production falls over 60%. This precarious financial profile raises serious doubts about Venezuela's macroeconomic stability as a partner for BRICS's objectives of stable growth. Meanwhile, simmering territorial disputes with Guyana threaten to disrupt cooperation should tensions flare further. Internally, BRICS members may wish to consolidate after admitting five new members in 2024 ( Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates).
Nevertheless, Venezuela's push to join BRICS should not be dismissed outright. Meaningful political and economic reforms, de-escalating regional tensions through diplomacy, and ongoing cooperation over time could help conditions evolve to potentially meet BRICS membership criteria down the road. But as long as crises persist at home and turbulence risks spilling over borders, Venezuela falls short of offering the stable governance required for inclusion this year.
(Photo Credit: jpmas.com)
Introduction:
Venezuela's heavy reliance on oil exports has long placed it at the center of global geopolitical dynamics. As the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, even periods of domestic political instability do not prevent Venezuela from exerting influence on international energy markets. However, over a decade of economic mismanagement and U.S. sanctions have crippled the Venezuelan economy, with inflation exceeding 200% annually and oil production falling over 60% since the late 1990s. Amid this domestic crisis, President Maduro has pursued closer strategic partnerships with countries seeking to challenge Western domination of global institutions and financing systems. In this context, Maduro has expressed interest in Venezuela joining BRICS, a bloc of major emerging economies collaborating to promote multipolar governance. BRICS original members include Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—countries representing over 25% of global GDP and 42% of the world's population. In 2024, BRICS admitted Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Now BRICS encompasses about 41% of global oil production, thanks to the inclusion of major oil giants like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iran. One of BRICS’ main aims is to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and Euro for international trade and reserve holdings.
This report aims to assess the potential impacts of Venezuela joining BRICS by examining the effects on Venezuela's existing trade relationships and key economic sectors. The analysis is intended to inform geopolitical analysts seeking to evaluate costs, benefits, and feasibility for Venezuela under new international alignments. Specifically, the report will explore implications for organizations like OPEC, PetroCaribe, ALBA, and MERCOSUR, as well as Venezuela's energy, agriculture, and manufacturing industries. Consideration is also given to domestic political variables and recent territorial disputes influencing Venezuela's incentive to deepen BRICS cooperation.
(Photo Credit: X @NicolasMaduro)
Impact On Current Trade Agreements, Organizations, and Significant Sectors Of The Economy:
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC & OPEC+:
Member Parties Of OPEC: Algeria, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudia Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
OPEC+ Parties: Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, South Sudan and Sudan.
Nature Of OPEC: An intergovernmental organization of 13 oil-producing countries. Its goal is to coordinate petroleum policies and ensure the stabilization of oil markets to secure an efficient, economic, and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers, and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry.
Nature Of OPEC+: OPEC+ aims to coordinate the production of oil to stabilize the oil market and prevent prices from falling too low. The group meets regularly with OPEC to discuss production levels and make adjustments as needed.
Potential Impact:
By Venezuela joining BRICS it would further strengthen OPEC’s position in the global oil market. Currently, Russia (the third largest oil producer in the world and a member of OPEC+) is a founding member of BRICS with other OPEC member states that recently joined BRICS in 2024. These countries are Saudi Arabia, Iran, and The United Arab Emirates. If Venezuela joins BRICS, it would create a larger and more powerful bloc of oil-producing countries, which could give them more leverage in negotiations with oil consumers. For instance, with the backing of BRICS Venezuela could push for higher oil prices and use the influence of other BRICS countries to alter OPEC’s policies to allow higher production quotas for Venezuela. However, Venezuela's oil production capabilities have declined significantly in recent decades due to underinvestment and mismanagement, with production down over 60% since the late 1990s. As a result, other OPEC members may question Venezuela's ability to meet production commitments
Additionally, Venezuela's membership in BRICS could weaken OPEC's cohesion. Venezuela and fellow OPEC-member BRICS countries could leverage their alliance to influence OPEC policies in a manner that prioritizes their collective interests over non-BRICS members. Countries that are not in BRICS but are OPEC/OPEC+ members may not want to directly align themselves with BRICS and may resist policies that are seen as supporting BRICS. Venezuela and Russia are close allies and if Venezuela joins BRICS, it could give Russia more influence within the group. This could lead to increased cooperation between Russia and Venezuela, which could make it more difficult for OPEC+ to reach a consensus on production levels. This could complicate OPEC+'s relationship with Russia, as Russia may be more likely to support Venezuela's interests over the interests of countries that are not as closely aligned with Russia.
(Photo Credit: X @OPECSecretariat)
Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra América) ALBA:
Parties Involved: Antigua and Barbuda, Bolivia, Cuba, Dominica, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Venezuela
Nature Of Organization: Pursues Latin American and Caribbean social, political, and economic integration.
Potential Impact:
Venezuela played an influential founding role in ALBA and the alliance initially achieved solidarity on initiatives like joint energy projects between Venezuela and other member countries, including petroleum exploration and hydroelectric dams. However, as Venezuela's economic and political crises have intensified in recent years, its active participation in ALBA has waned considerably. Some member states have likewise experienced turbulence such as political unrest in Bolivia and growing U.S. pressure across the bloc.
Venezuela joining BRICS introduces both opportunities and challenges for ALBA cohesion. Deeper engagement with BRICS represents a possible variable to re-energizing ALBA by renewing Venezuela's leadership credentials. However, ideological differences between some members and an increasingly anti-U.S. Venezuela threatening further integration could also push countries unwilling to compromise their relationships with Washington away from the alliance. While BRICS presents alternatives for Venezuela, its membership may disadvantage ALBA's emphasis on Latin American and Caribbean unity if pursued at the cost of cooperation within the region.
PetroCaribe:
Parties Involved: Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent, and the Grenadines, Suriname, and Venezuela. (Oil supplies to Honduras were suspended after Honduran Pres. Manuel Zelaya was ousted on June 28, 2009.)
Nature Of Organization: A regional oil procurement agreement in which Venezuela offers member states oil supplies on a concessionary financial agreement. (The purchase of oil at market value for 5%-50% up front with a grace period of one to two years; the remainder can be paid through a 17-25 year financing agreement with 1% interest if oil prices are above US$40 per barrel.)
Potential Impact:
Venezuela’s ascension into BRICS would have negative consequences for the members of PetroCaribe. If Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS, it may divert some of its oil exports to other BRICS members, such as China and India. This could reduce the amount of oil available to Caribbean countries under PetroCaribe. Venezuela is already producing oil at very low production levels and it is currently in an economic crisis. The Venezuelan government may very well turn its back on its Caribbean counterparts to make larger trade deals with other BRICS countries. It is also possible that if Venezuela joined BRICS it would be forced to reevaluate its financing terms for PetroCaribe. This would make it difficult for PetroCaribe countries to afford Venezuelan oil. Venezuela may also be more hesitant to invest in PetroCaribe members due to prior corruption scandals and uncertainty in ideological commitments. For example, in 2020 it was revealed that Haitian officials stole over $2 billion worth of development aid from the PetroCaribe fund. Venezuela may instead choose to invest in its BRICS partners. (Although currently due to the ongoing economic crisis Venezuela will not be investing in any other country).
The Latin American and the Caribbean Economic System (SELA):
Parties Involved: Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Grenada, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Dominican Republic, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.
Nature Of Organization: Consultation and coordination for Latin American and Caribbean countries to adopt common positions and strategies on economic issues before countries, groups of countries, forums, and international organizations, and to foster cooperation and integration among Latin American and Caribbean nations.
Potential Impact:
Venezuela joining BRICS could have a positive impact on SELA. Venezuela's membership in BRICS could help to boost SELA's profile and influence on the global stage. The organization is headquartered in Caracas, Venezuela, which historically gave Venezuela significant influence over the decisions of SELA. Venezuela's membership could help to provide SELA with a greater voice in international economic discussions and negotiations, especially regarding regional discussions centered on the exchange of information and services. However, it is unlikely that Venezuela could act as a liaison between BRICS and SELA in the realm of international trade agreements. SELA is a relatively young organization, having been founded in 1975. It is still under development and its effectiveness has been questionable at best. The organization has never successfully negotiated any international agreements in its history. Additionally, the decisions made by the Latin American Council are not binding to the member states. Venezuela’s influence has deteriorated significantly due to the ongoing economic and political crisis it experienced in 2018. Some SELA member states are concerned about Venezuela's close ties to China and Russia. Venezuela's human rights record has also been criticized by some SELA member states. Thus if Venezuela joined BRICS, some member states would seriously reassess their membership in the organization due to concerns that Venezuela's membership could lead to a shift in SELA's focus away from Latin America and the Caribbean and towards the BRICS countries.
Mercado Común del Sur (Common Market Of The South) MERCOSUR:
Parties Involved: Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela (suspended since 2016)
Nature Of Agreement: Promote free trade and economic integration among its members, coordinate macroeconomic policies, and cooperate on social, cultural, and environmental issues.
Potential Impact:
Venezuela joining BRICS will not have a direct impact on Mercosur since Venezuela is currently indefinitely suspended from Mercosur. However, there are some indirect ways in which Venezuela joining BRICS could impact Mercosur. For example, if Venezuela uses its membership in BRICS to promote its interests at the expense of Mercosur's interests, this could lead to increased tensions between Venezuela and its Mercosur partners. This could potentially undermine the cohesion of Mercosur. Additionally, if Venezuela's membership in BRICS leads to significant increases in trade and investment between Venezuela and BRICS member states, this could make Venezuela less dependent on Mercosur. This could also weaken the ties between Venezuela and Mercosur ultimately dashing any hopes of Venezuela being reintegrated into Mercosur.
(Photo Credit: Reuters/Uslei Marcelino)
Impact On The Energy Sector:
Venezuela being an OPEC member and having the largest oil reserves in the world, stands to benefit greatly from increased integration into the BRICS bloc. Currently, Venezuelan oil production is at an all-time low due to the ongoing economic crisis, sanctions, and mismanagement. Venezuela is in dire need of investment to make its energy sector profitable again. China, in particular, has been a major investor in Venezuela's oil and gas sector, and this investment could continue to grow if Venezuela joined BRICS. BRICS countries are major consumers of energy, and Venezuela could improve its access to these markets if it joined the group. This could help Venezuela to increase its exports and generate more revenue from its energy sector. Russia and Venezuela are close allies and if Venezuela joined BRICS it could cooperate more closely with Russia to improve its oil and gas production and refining capabilities. Additionally by Venezuela joining BRICS, it could reduce its vulnerability to US sanctions and other financial pressures. There are some potential downsides to Venezuela joining BRICS however. BRICS countries such as Iran, Saudia Arabia, The United Arab Emirates, and Russia are major oil and gas producers. Venezuela could face increased competition from these countries if it joined the group. These countries may be hesitant to allow Venezuela to increase its oil production because they want to keep the oil supply low and the oil price high. A flood of cheap Venezuelan oil could put downward pressure on oil and gas prices and reduce export earnings for all BRICS countries. Additionally, due to political pressure from the United States and its allies, potential trading partners with Venezuela could be driven away pushing Venezuela to be even more reliant on BRICS countries.
Venezuela's renewable energy sector is currently underdeveloped, however, there is significant potential for growth in this sector given Venezuela's abundant renewable energy resources such as hydroelectric power. The BRICS countries have prioritized investing in and developing the renewable energy sector, and Venezuela can benefit from the increased investment. Venezuela is home to the El Guri hydroelectric power plant. This power plant has a capacity of 10,200 megawatts and generates approximately 50,000 gigawatt-hours of electricity which is about two-thirds of Venezuela's total electricity generation. This is a significant source of revenue for Venezuela, as it exports electricity to neighboring countries. Due to the ongoing economic crisis in the country, the power plant is in a state of disrepair and is not operating at peak efficiency. On August 4th, 2023 Venezuela and Brazil signed an agreement allowing Brazil to purchase electricity from Venezuela’s El Guri power plant and agreed to invest over $500 million to connect the power grid of Roraima, Brazil to the El Guri hydroelectric power plant. It can be expected that if Venezuela joined BRICS investment deals like the aforementioned one with Brazil could become more common. Venezuela and the BRICS countries could cooperate closely on the development of hydroelectric technology and other renewable energy projects in Venezuela.
(Photo Credit: Corpoelec)
Impact On The Manufacturing Sector:
Venezuela’s already weakened manufacturing sector would be unable to withstand Venezuela’s ascension into BRICS. BRICS member states are all major producers of goods and services that are similar to those produced in Venezuela. This increased competition could lead to lower prices for Venezuelan exports and could make it more difficult for Venezuelan manufacturers to compete in the global marketplace. Additionally, Venezuela is heavily dependent on imported raw materials for its manufacturing sector. BRICS member states are major consumers of raw materials, which means that if Venezuela joins BRICS, it could lead to increased competition for raw materials. This will drive up prices and make it more difficult for Venezuelan manufacturers to operate profitably. Likely, Venezuela’s economy would further shift to resource extraction, making it much more vulnerable to market fluctuations and thus more unstable.
Impact On Resource Extraction:
Venezuela's heavy reliance on resource extraction as a means to alleviate its ongoing economic crisis is a well-documented phenomenon. In 2016, under the Maduro government's leadership, a substantial portion of Venezuela's land was designated as the "Arco Minero" or "Orinoco Mining Arc." This vast area encompasses regions within Amazonas, Bolivar, and Delta Amacuro states, and it boasts a rich abundance of valuable minerals. Among these resources are bauxite, crucial for aluminum manufacturing, coltan, an essential component in numerous electronic devices, industrial diamonds, and gold. While Venezuela joining BRICS could lead to substantial investments (particularly from China) in this sector of the Venezuelan economy, such a move would only yield short-term economic gains. It would have long-term negative consequences for Venezuela.
One such consequence would be the exacerbation of illegal mining operations and criminal activities in the Amazon. Left-wing paramilitary groups and drug cartels currently have extensive illegal mining operations not only in this part of Venezuela but also across the border in Brazil and Colombia. These criminal groups pose a significant threat to official mining operations, with violence and kidnappings being common occurrences. Increased investment into mining would undoubtedly attract more groups to the region, thereby further destabilizing the area as a whole. Moreover, this would significantly strain Venezuela's relations with its neighbors, especially Brazil, which places an immense emphasis on the environmental protection of the Amazon.
In Venezuela, the consequences of illegal mining activities are apparent with dangerously high levels of mercury contamination in water sources. This contamination has far-reaching impacts on both the environment and the health of local communities. The use of toxic substances like mercury is commonplace during illegal mining operations, with hazardous chemicals being dumped into rivers, streams, and other bodies of water. This, in turn, leads to severe water pollution and the destruction of the environment. Furthermore, illegal mining necessitates the clearing of extensive areas of forest land to access valuable mineral deposits. This deforestation results in the loss of invaluable ecosystems, the devastation of habitats, and the displacement of wildlife. The Amazon rainforest, for instance, has been severely affected by illegal mining, resulting in extensive deforestation and the disruption of its fragile local ecosystem. The depletion of mineral deposits, the transformation of landscapes, and the contamination of soil and water can take decades or even centuries to recover if recovery is possible at all.
(Photo Credit: Venezuelanalysis.com)
Impact On The Agricultural Sector:
Brazil's BRICS membership grants it an advantage as one of Latin America's top agricultural exporters. Venezuela on the other hand saw its agricultural sector shrink due to the ongoing economic crisis. If Venezuela were to join BRICS its agricultural sector simply would not be able to compete with its more prominent South American neighbor. It may be more sensible for Venezuela to focus its agricultural sector on domestic consumption and to import foodstuffs from its neighbors. While this is good for Brazil, this will make Venezuela highly reliant upon its neighbors. Due to the instability of Latin American politics, Venezuela may be left cut off from its neighbors like it was after the 2018 political crisis. Due to this increased competition within BRICS Venezuela may shift its agricultural sector to be more specialized in specific crops it knows it can profit from. This means a greater focus on sugarcane and other tropical fruits suited for Venezuela’s climate. This strategy leverages Venezuela's unique strengths and avoids direct competition with Brazil's broad agricultural base. This specialization of the Venezuelan agricultural sector would trade short-term economic gains for long-term risk. Venezuela would become more vulnerable to changes in the market for those crops. Additionally, if Venezuela becomes too dependent on a few crops, it could become more susceptible to food shortages as it experienced in the past.
Variables Influencing Venezuela’s Decision To Join BRICS:
The following sections emphasize the variables the Venezuelan decision-makers would consider before joining BRICS. These sectors of concern range from current economic, political, and ideological situations facing Venezuela.
Economic Crisis:
Venezuela exemplifies a "petrostate" model whereby the government derives the majority of revenues from oil exports, leading to over-reliance on commodity price fluctuations. Decades of macroeconomic mismanagement including excessive spending, price controls, and over-regulation crippled economic resilience. This mismanagement came ahead in 2014 when oil prices sharply fell and overnight the Venezuelan economy collapsed. The Venezuelan economy still has not recovered since its collapse in 2014. Additionally, after the 2018 political crisis, Venezuela became one of the most sanctioned countries in the world. The Venezuelan economy is in a dire state with almost a 200% inflation rate. Venezuela predominantly uses the U.S. dollar for domestic transactions due to currency volatility. Heavy domestic dollarization exposes Venezuela's economy to volatility from fluctuations in the dollar-bolivar exchange rate. This dollar dependence is contradictory to the mission of BRICS to promote an alternative to Western-dominated international monetary systems. Despite this, the Maduro regime hopes that by joining BRICS, the organization will help alleviate the economic crisis in the country. BRICS countries have a combined GDP of over $20 trillion, making them a significant economic force globally. This could give Venezuela access to new markets and investment opportunities, which could help to boost its economy. However, it is unclear if all the members of BRICS support Venezuela joining. There are serious concerns about the country's economic stability, and the BRICS countries may be hesitant to accept that risk.
Chinese Loans To Venezuela:
Venezuela's potential interest in joining BRICS can be understood in light of its complex financial and geopolitical ties with China. While Venezuela has a substantial debt of approximately $19 billion to China, its ability to repay this debt is constrained by its ongoing economic crisis. To address this, China established an oil-for-cash scheme, requiring Venezuela to repay its debt through oil shipments, with quantities linked to oil prices. However, Venezuelan oil represents only a small fraction of China's overall crude oil imports, making it less critical for China's energy needs compared to other oil-producing nations. China's strategic interests appear to be shifting towards other valuable Venezuelan resources like coltan and gold, as well as resources required for the manufacturing of electric vehicles.
In the past, when Venezuela defaulted on a portion of its debt to China in 2017, China's response was to threaten the seizure of Venezuelan assets. However, in 2020, China signaled a willingness to restructure Venezuela's debt. This shift in approach reflects China's recognition of the importance of stability in Venezuela, rather than the immediate seizure of assets. China values Venezuela as a reliable ally in the region, as evidenced by its financial and diplomatic support for the Maduro regime. Considering this context, joining BRICS could potentially offer Venezuela an opportunity to strengthen its relationship with China and to attract foreign investment from other BRICS nations such as Brazil and Russia. This move might help Venezuela stabilize its economy and improve the standing of the Venezuelan government. This potential increase in investment does come at a cost to Venezuelan sovereignty and economic diversification.
Migration Crisis:
Since the beginning of Venezuela’s economic and political crisis, over six million Venezuelans migrated to neighboring countries and the United States. This mass exodus from Venezuela has been disastrous for both the economic stability of Venezuela and regional security. Human trafficking operations strengthen criminal organizations in Latin America, perpetuating drug trafficking and insecurity. Some neighboring countries may view Venezuela's BRICS membership as a diversion from addressing the urgent humanitarian crisis. They could argue that Venezuela should prioritize resolving internal issues before engaging in regional or global partnerships. Additionally, thousands of Venezuelans live in the neighboring BRICS country; Brazil. Serious tensions could arise between Venezuela and its neighbors as more and more Venezuelans migrate. Brazil in particular may be forced to increase border security with Venezuela as a sign of solidarity with the Maduro government. Venezuela is desperately short on skilled personnel and by joining BRICS it can improve cooperation with other BRICS countries in areas that require skilled workers such as petroleum refining and the medical sector.
(Photo Credit: Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters)
Medical Crisis:
Venezuela is amidst a humanitarian and health crisis. Due to the massive amount of migration from Venezuela, its healthcare system is experiencing extreme shortages of skilled medical personnel such as doctors, nurses, and technicians. Over 14 million Venezuelans need humanitarian assistance. Due to the ongoing economic crisis, Venezuela’s healthcare system experienced a sharp decline in funding leading to widespread shortages of essentially everything needed to run hospitals. Joining BRICS could provide Venezuela with access to expertise and resources in healthcare infrastructure development. The country could potentially benefit from knowledge sharing and capacity building in healthcare, which is essential for addressing the severe health challenges it faces. Additionally, the government's decision to join BRICS and the potential benefits it brings in terms of healthcare and humanitarian assistance could impact the domestic perception of the government's ability to address the crisis effectively. BRICS countries such as Brazil can offer medical assistance to Venezuela if they join BRICS. However, Brazil themselves experience medical shortages so the support they can offer is limited. If Venezuela joined BRICS its medical situation would not improve that much. Venezuela already has strong ties to China and Russia, yet support from them has been extremely limited.
Ideological Alignment:
Former President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela with his brand of left-wing populism was instrumental in shaping the current political landscape of all of Latin America. "Chavismo" is the political ideology associated with Venezuelan President Chávez. It combines socialist, populist, and nationalist principles and involves wealth redistribution, anti-American rhetoric, and state control of key industries, especially oil. While it initially appealed to the poor through social programs, it's also criticized for eroding democratic institutions and contributing to Venezuela's economic crisis. Chavismo has had a significant impact on Venezuelan politics and remains a polarizing force in the country. Maduro was a protégé of Chávez and faithfully continued the policies of his predecessor. Maduro aligned Venzeula with China and other left-wing governments in Latin America such as Brazil and Argentina. Maduro’s ideological beliefs fall in line with other BRICS countries and thus he wants to align Venezuela with the BRICS bloc to challenge the West.
Geopolitical Factors:
In 2018, Venezuela experienced a severe political crisis. Faced with an imminent economic collapse and political gridlock, President Maduro called for early presidential elections. The opposition boycotted the elections, there were numerous allegations of electoral fraud and authoritarian actions taken by the government. This all culminated when the opposition-led National Assembly declared Juan Guaidó interim president of Venezuela. Many Western states swiftly recognized Guaidó as the legitimate president of Venezuela and they imposed harsh sanctions upon Maduro’s Venezuela. This essentially left Venezuela as a pariah state and it was extremely weakened by this. The Maduro regime felt threatened by the actions of the United States and it seeks closer ties to the adversaries of the United States to prevent the United States from interfering in the internal affairs of Venezuela again. Joining BRICS would be a way for Venezuela to further distance itself from the US. President Maduro emphasized the importance of BRICS as a driving force behind the emergence of a multipolar world order. Venezuela joining BRICS could also give it a platform to convince other Latin American countries to move away from the United States.
However, tensions with Guyana threaten these objectives. Brazil actively aims to bypass Venezuelan oil influence by accessing Guyana’s reserves, increasing tensions as Venezuela claims the disputed Essequibo region as its own. In addition, the only paved road connecting Venezuela to Essequibo runs through Brazil. The Brazilian army has positioned over 600 soldiers on this road to prevent any Venezuelan incursions against its sovereignty. China also holds major investments in Guyana’s burgeoning oil industry. Should conflict emerge, both China and Brazil would be reluctant to support Venezuela due to the strategic and economic importance of maintaining stability. Escalating this dispute could overshadow any geopolitical benefits of BRICS affiliation. Concrete resolutions or assurances against conflict are needed to convince members that Venezuelan membership poses minimal risks to their regional priorities.
Diplomatic Factors:
Venezuela has been increasingly isolated from the international community in recent years. The United States and many other countries imposed sanctions on Venezuela, and Venezuela has been suspended from several international organizations. Joining BRICS would help to reduce Venezuela's isolation and would give it access to a new network of diplomatic partners. This is especially the case in Latin America. President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva of Brazil is ideologically closely aligned with Maduro. Both are left-wing politicians who want to promote increased collaboration in Latin America. Lula was previously the president of Brazil from 2003-2010. During this time Lula and former President Chávez worked closely on many initiatives, including the creation of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA). Since Lula’s reelection in 2022, Brazil has adopted a policy of rapprochement with Venezuela. Lula previously condemned the West for pushing an image of an anti-democratic Venezuela. Brazil is a strong supporter of Venezuela joining BRICS. While the relationship between Venezuela and Brazil can bring short-term gains, it can quickly become one-sided. Brazil is the larger and more dominant country in this partnership. In the future, with increased collaboration between Venezuela and Brazil (and BRICS by extension) Brazil will be able to exert influence in Venezuela and align the nation to work towards Brazil's larger geopolitical ambitions for the region.
(Photo Credit: MIGUEL GUTIERREZ/AFP/Getty Images)
Potential Impacts of Venezuela Joining BRICS:
Positive impacts:
Increased trade and investment opportunities. Membership could open new markets for Venezuela's oil and minerals in large emerging economies.
Financial support. Venezuela could potentially access loans/aid from the BRICS New Development Bank to alleviate the ongoing economic crisis.
Geopolitical influence. Joining boosts Venezuela's standing and provides a counterbalance to US influence in the region.
Alternative partnerships. Membership diversifies political and economic partners beyond traditional regional partners.
Negative impacts:
Economic instability. Venezuela's hyperinflation and debt defaults make it a risky partner and could impact the group's goals of stability.
Reliance on the US dollar. Venezuela's heavy dollarization contradicts BRICS aim of a multipolar global currency system.
Oil dependence. Venezuela's economy is overly reliant on oil exports, with no clear strategic plan to diversify its economy, making Venezuela reliant on its BRICS partners in the event of extreme global oil price fluctuations.
Regional tensions. US opposition and tensions with neighbors like Colombia/Brazil could spill over into BRICS.
Overall Assessment and Analysis of Venezuela’s Likelihood of Joining BRICS:
The likelihood of Venezuela joining BRICS is influenced by a delicate balance of domestic political considerations, economic imperatives, ideological compatibility, nationalism, and diplomatic ambitions. While the appeal of BRICS' economic opportunities and alignment with ideological preferences could encourage Venezuela's integration, concerns about economic stability, geopolitical implications, and potential friction with Western powers could act as significant constraints. Under the current circumstances, Venezuela's immediate accession to BRICS as a full member appears unlikely.
Here's a breakdown of the key factors impacting the likelihood:
BRICS Growth Fatigue: The recent expansion of BRICS in January 2024 by five new members (Egypt, Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Ethiopia) might indicate a slowdown in further enlargement for the foreseeable future. Integrating additional members requires adjustments to internal structures and processes, especially with the diverse interests and priorities of the current 11 members. This "growth fatigue" could delay Venezuela's full membership consideration.
Venezuelan Economic Instability: Venezuela's economic situation remains fragile, plagued by hyperinflation, currency devaluation, and widespread shortages. These persistent issues raise concerns about Venezuela's ability to contribute effectively to BRICS' economic initiatives and goals. Moreover, concerns about governance and transparency might further hinder acceptance.
Tensions with Guyana: The ongoing territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo region can create diplomatic friction within BRICS, particularly with Brazil, which shares close ties with Guyana. This instability could be seen as a risk to the group's cohesion and potentially complicate Venezuela's membership bid.
U.S. Sanctions: The United States' extensive sanctions against Venezuela pose logistical and financial challenges for deeper integration with BRICS. BRICS members might be hesitant to jeopardize their relations with the US by admitting a heavily sanctioned nation.
Internal BRICS Dynamics: Differing geopolitical priorities and economic ambitions within the expanded BRICS group could also create hurdles for Venezuela's immediate incorporation. Finding common ground and ensuring alignment with the group's goals might take time.
Potential for Political Crisis: The upcoming Venezuelan presidential election in 2024 carries significant uncertainty. Another political crisis resembling the 2018 turmoil could further destabilize the country and weaken its case for BRICS membership.
However, Venezuela's membership aspirations and the BRICS' long-term vision for an expanded global order should not be completely disregarded.
Some possibilities to consider include:
Gradual Engagement: Venezuela could initially participate in BRICS activities as an observer or partner nation, gradually building trust and demonstrating its alignment with the group's objectives before seeking full membership.
Shifting Geopolitical Landscape: The evolving global political landscape, with the rise of non-Western powers and the weakening of US influence, could eventually create a more favorable environment for Venezuela's eventual integration into BRICS.
In conclusion, while Maduro hopes to join BRICS this year, as it stands Venezuela's economic instability and political tensions pose too many challenges given BRICS’ focus on stability and governance standards. Once Venezuela can demonstrate it has stabilized through reforms that address its debt crisis and hyperinflation while improving ties with neighbors, and should BRICS consolidate further and seek to expand, the prospects may improve. However, in the near term, the high risks to the bloc likely outweigh the potential benefits of inclusion. Continued engagement between Venezuela and BRICS, coupled with domestic reforms to strengthen institutions and macroeconomic management, as well as shifts in the international landscape could see BRICS pursue greater diversification, which may set the stage for Venezuela to potentially join the group at a later date once sufficient progress has been made to better align with BRICS objectives.
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