The Opposition’s Last Stand? Venezuela’s Political Future After January 10th

Part 1: Assessing Opposition Momentum and Regime Tactics Before January 10th

Executive Summary

The Venezuelan opposition demonstrated strong resilience and adaptability throughout 2024, leveraging decentralized leadership and grassroots networks to sustain political momentum. Leaders like María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia effectively utilized social media to coordinate protests, despite increased government repression and a lack of support from security forces.

The January 10, 2025 inauguration marks a critical juncture for the opposition. Failure to effectively challenge Maduro’s legitimacy after this date risks fragmentation, fatigue, and reduced mobilization capacity, while sustained pressure through protests and international advocacy could maintain momentum.

Key Findings:

Sustained Support: Likely (~55–75%) due to widespread dissatisfaction and organized grassroots networks, though participation declined in later months due to repression and fatigue.

Protest Organization: Very Likely (~80–90%) as economic instability and unresolved grievances fuel continued mobilization, albeit with adapted strategies to counter crackdowns.

Government Repression: Almost Certain (>90%) as Maduro’s regime maintains violent crackdowns, arrests, and digital censorship to stifle dissent and enforce control.

Outlook:

The opposition retains momentum but faces growing challenges. Without a visible and impactful push following the January 10th inauguration, the movement risks fading influence and weakened organizational capacity, reducing its ability to force meaningful political change.

Objectives

This analysis examines the patterns of state-led repression under Maduro’s administration and the evolving strategies employed by the opposition. This analysis will be used to determine the path ahead for Venezuela proceeding with the January 10, 2025 inauguration ceremony for either Nicolás Maduro or Edmundo González Urrutia.

Scope

This report focuses on events from January to December 2024, using data from the provided timeline. It includes a detailed analysis of key incidents, opposition strategies, and the government’s responses during this period. By incorporating this data, the report provides a comprehensive overview of Venezuela's ongoing struggle for power and governance.

Background

Since Nicolás Maduro’s rise to power in 2013 following the death of Hugo Chávez, the architect of the Bolivarian Revolution, Venezuela has experienced widespread political, economic, and social turmoil. Maduro inherited Chávez’s socialist project but faced immediate challenges, including falling oil prices and declining state revenues. These fiscal difficulties led to widespread social unrest, prompting Maduro to crack down hard on dissent and consolidate power, transforming Venezuela into a full-fledged authoritarian regime.

The 2018 presidential election, widely condemned as fraudulent, solidified Maduro’s hold on power and triggered international sanctions, further isolating the regime. These sanctions exacerbated the economic crisis, resulting in hyperinflation and one of the largest migration crises in modern history, with over 7 million Venezuelans fleeing the country. In response, Maduro's government became even more authoritarian, systematically dismantling democratic institutions, violating human rights, and increasingly militarizing the state.

Despite these obstacles, the opposition has periodically managed to mobilize public support and international recognition. The 2019 declaration of Juan Guaidó as interim president briefly unified opposition forces, but the movement struggled to sustain momentum in the face of harsh repression and dwindling international backing. By 2024, opposition leaders, including María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia, sought to reinvigorate their efforts, leveraging social media and grassroots mobilization to challenge Maduro’s dominance.

Chronological Timeline Of Repression:

January 2024

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January 17 – Venezuelan authorities arrested Víctor Venegas, a prominent union leader and president of the Federation of Venezuelan Teachers (Fenatev) in Barinas, during a raid on the union's headquarters. ¹

(Photo Credit: El Nacional)

January 19 – President Nicolás Maduro accused the opposition of planning violent actions and called for the activation of the "Bolivarian Fury" plan, a prelude to further repression and arrests.²

January 22 – Attorney General Tarek William Saab announced the arrest of 32 civilians and military personnel and 14 arrest warrants for alleged conspiracy cases, targeting journalist Sebastiana Barráez, lawyer Tamara Sujú, Wender Villalobos, Norbey Marín, and retired military officers Mario Iván Carratú and José Antonio Colina. ³ ⁴

January 23 – Three regional leaders of Vente Venezuela—Juan Freites, Luis Camacaro, and Guillermo López—were arrested for alleged involvement in a conspiracy to steal weapons and attack officials. ⁵

(Photo Credit: Tenemos Noticias)

January 24 – The Armed Forces expelled 33 military officers, including 1 General, 2 Colonels, and 6 Lieutenant Colonels, for alleged involvement in five assassination plots and destabilization attempts against Maduro. ⁶

January 26 – The Supreme Court upheld the 15-year ban on María Corina Machado and opposition leader Henrique Capriles, ruling them ineligible for public office and sparking accusations of political persecution. ⁷

(Photo Credit: Gaby Oraa | Reuters)

Protests and Repression in January 2024 ⁸

Protests Registered:

• 478 protests documented, averaging 16 per day

• 77% of protests focused on economic, social, cultural, and environmental rights (DESCA), particularly related to wages, pensions, and basic services.

• 23% of protests addressed civil and political rights (DCP), including opposition to political disqualifications and demands for electoral transparency.

Repression:

• 7 protests were violently repressed in 7 states, involving criminalization of dissent and police brutality.

• 5 protests denounced security force abuses, including extortion, arbitrary fines, and torture.

• Activists and union leaders faced arbitrary detentions and threats

Key Protests by Sector:

• Labor Rights:

  • 280 protests (59%) focused on wage increases, opposition to the ONAPRE directive, and union rights.

  • Primary participants included education workers (193), health workers (44), and transportation workers (10).

  • Protests demanded salary adjustments to match inflation and dollarized costs.

• Basic Services and Housing:

  • 98 protests (20%) called for water, electricity, and gas improvements amid infrastructure collapses.

  • 36 protests denounced water shortages, 30 protests rejected power outages, and 2 protests demanded better gas distribution.

• Social Security:

  • 82 protests were led by pensioners and retirees, demanding pension increases to meet basic needs for food and medicine.

• Civil and Political Rights:

  • 112 protests (23%) focused on electoral rights, including 98 protests for fair registration processes and 67 protests for justice in cases of arbitrary detentions.

  • Opposition movements rejected political disqualifications and warned of democratic erosion under new laws restricting NGOs.

Geographic Distribution:

• Top States:

  • Anzoátegui (58), Sucre (40), Bolívar (38), Portuguesa (31), Monagas (29).

• Lowest Activity:

  • Amazonas, Guárico, and Apure had minimal participation, reflecting limited media access and rural isolation.

Legislative Threats to Civic Space:

• The introduction of the NGO Law (“Ley Antisociedad”), which aims to restrict funding and criminalize civil society, raised alarms.

February 2024

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February 9 – Rocío San Miguel, director of the NGO Control Ciudadano, was detained at Maiquetía International Airport while attempting to leave the country. Her arrest sparked widespread concern due to its arbitrary nature and lack of information about her whereabouts, which experts deemed a case of "forced disappearance."

February 11 – Attorney General Tarek William Saab acknowledged Rocío San Miguel's arrest, accusing her of involvement in the "Brazalete Blanco" conspiracy plot to assassinate Nicolás Maduro. Several members of her family, including her daughter and ex-husband, were also detained but later released under precautionary measures.

February 12 – San Miguel was charged with Treason, Conspiracy, Terrorism, and Association and held at SEBIN’s El Helicoide facility. Her ex-husband, Alejandro González, was charged with Revealing Political and Military Secrets and detained at DGCIM. ⁹

(Photo Credit: EFE)

March 2024

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March 9 – Emil Brandt-Ulloa, Maria Corina Machado’s campaign manager in Barinas, was detained and presented before a Court in Barinas. Charges filed against him included: Conspiracy and criminal association, Gender violence (physical attacks on police and military women), and Offending an official. ¹⁰

(Photo Credit: RR. SS.)

March 11 – Víctor Venegas, leader of the National Federation of Unions and Colleges of Education Workers in Barinas, was released after being detained for organizing labor protests. ¹¹

March 18 – Joe Villamizar, the Political Coordinator for Vente Venezuela in Girardot, Aragua State, was disappeared by SEBIN agents.¹²

(Photo Credit: @VenteDDHH | X)

March 21 – Henry Alviarez and Dignora Hernández, two top aides of María Corina Machado and members of Vente Venezuela, were arrested on accusations of planning destabilizing actions ahead of the July 28 election, including alleged attacks on military installations.

• Seven other officials from Machado’s Vente Venezuela party were arrested, while seven more faced arrest warrants, including her campaign manager, Magalli Meda. ¹³

(Photo Credit: EFE)

March 22 – Eduardo Torres, a human rights lawyer and member of the NGO Provea, was detained at the Caracas Judicial Circuit after filming masked military personnel outside the courts. He was threatened with arrest and later released, though he reported continued harassment from security forces. ¹⁴

(Photo Credit: El Pitazo)

March 26 – Six Venezuelan opposition leaders sought asylum in the Argentine Embassy in Caracas following the arrest warrants against them.

Those in the embassy included:

1. Magalli Meda - Campaign manager for María Corina Machado.

2. Claudia Macero - Member of Vente Venezuela’s communications team.

3. Pedro Urruchurtu - International coordinator for Vente Venezuela.

4. Omar González - Former opposition deputy.

5. Humberto Villalobos - Opposition activist.

6. Fernando Martínez Mottola - Former Minister under Carlos Andrés Pérez. ¹⁵

(Photo Credit: El Cronista)

April 2024

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April 2 – Vice President Delcy Rodríguez presented the Anti-Fascism Law to the National Assembly. The bill passed its first reading on the same day in record time without substantial debate. The Anti-Fascism Law was aimed at criminalizing dissent and limiting free speech. ¹⁶

April 9 – Former Oil Minister Tareck El Aissami was arrested for his alleged role in a massive corruption scandal involving PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela) and crypto-asset transactions.

• Simón Alejandro Zerpa, former Finance Minister, and Samark José López, a businessman linked to El Aissami, were also detained.

• Charges include treason, embezzlement, money laundering, and criminal conspiracy related to state-run oil and mining resources.

• 54 individuals were arrested, and 17 additional warrants were issued in connection with the case.

• Authorities allege billions of dollars were diverted through shell companies and crypto transactions. ¹⁷

(Photo Credit: EPV)

April 15 – Venezuelan activist and journalist Carlos Julio Rojas was arrested for the crimes of terrorism, conspiracy, incitement to commit a crime, and attempted murder. ¹⁸

(Photo Credit: Gaby Oraa | Reuters)

April 30 – Several activists and campaign members from María Corina Machado’s party, including Ámbar Márquez, Víctor Castillo, and Oscar Castañeda, are arrested in Portuguesa state.¹⁹

(Photo Credit: @FundehullanVzla | X)

Protests and Repression in April 2024²⁰

Protests Registered:

• 326 protests documented, averaging 11 per day

• 76% of protests focused on economic, social, cultural, and environmental rights (DESCA), particularly addressing housing and basic services.

• 24% of protests centered on civil and political rights (DCP), including demands for electoral transparency and opposition to political disqualifications.

Repression:

• Security forces violently repressed 7 protests in 3 states.

• 19 protests denounced abuses by security forces, including extortion, arbitrary fines, and threats against citizens.

• Increasing criminalization of activists, such as the arbitrary arrest of journalist Carlos Julio Rojas, who was denied legal representation and contact with family.

Key Protests by Sector:

• Housing and Basic Services:

  • 165 protests (49%) demanded reliable electricity, clean water, and improved waste management.

  • Concerns about environmental degradation due to garbage accumulation and sewage overflow were raised.

• Labor Rights:

  • 83 protests (27%) focused on fair wages, especially in preparation for the May Day marches.

  • Workers emphasized the need for salary adjustments to match the cost of living and social benefits.

• Civil and Political Rights (DCP):

  • 77 protests (24%) demanded electoral transparency and opposition to political disqualifications.

  • 52 protests criticized delays and irregularities in the voter registration process, particularly impacting young voters and opposition supporters.

Geographic Distribution:

• Top States:

  • Bolívar (42), Sucre (26), Portuguesa (24), Anzoátegui (22), Táchira (21).

• Lowest Activity:

  • Amazonas (0), Apure (1), Guárico (2).

Legislative Threats to Civic Space:

• The Law Against NGOs, approved in January 2024, aims to criminalize civil society organizations, risking further restrictions on civic freedoms.

• The Anti-Fascism Law, introduced in April 2024, grants broad powers to limit freedom of expression and political organization, legitimizing repression under the guise of national security.

May 2024

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May 4 – Hotel Urumaco in Coro, Falcón, and Hotel El Paso in Maracaibo were shut down after hosting opposition leader María Corina Machado and her team. SENIAT inspectors cited regulatory violations, but opposition leaders accused the regime of political persecution. ²¹

May 16 – Authorities preemptively closed the Hotel El Recreo before Machado’s visit to Aragua.²²

(Photo Credit: @CarlosZapata_VE | X)

May 22 – A small business selling empanadas in Corozopando, Guárico was shut down after serving breakfast to Machado and her team. The closure became symbolic, leading to a campaign where supporters began buying “freedom empanadas” to protest repression and support the owners. ²³

May 23 – The Venezuelan government detained two student activists, María Andreína Montilla and David Sosa, from the opposition party Voluntad Popular. They were accused of military rebellion and treason after being arrested by SEBIN officers without a warrant. They were held in military courts despite being civilians.

May 27 – Arrests of María Andreína Montilla and David Sosa were formalized, charging them with military rebellion and treason. ²⁴

(Photo Credit: Foro Penal)

Protests and Repression in May 2024²⁵

Protests Registered:

• 429 protests documented, averaging 14 per day

• 77% of protests focused on economic, social, cultural, and environmental rights (DESCA), with demands for basic services and electricity improvements dominating.

• 23% of protests addressed civil and political rights (DCP), including calls for electoral transparency ahead of the July 28 presidential election.

Repression:

• Security forces violently repressed 3 protests in 3 states.

• 10 protests targeted security forces, denouncing abuses of power, arbitrary detentions, and intimidation.

• The presence of paramilitary groups (Colectivos) disrupted peaceful demonstrations by workers and retirees demanding labor rights.

Key Protests by Sector:

• Basic Services and Housing:

  • 165 protests (39%) demanded reliable electricity, clean water, and improved sanitation.

• Labor Rights:

  • 142 protests (33%) highlighted low wages, with an emphasis on education (56 protests), healthcare (27), and transport (12) sectors.

  • May Day demonstrations condemned salaries below $5 per month, contrasting with the $550 monthly cost of living.

• Social Security:

  • 62 protests focused on pension reform and guarantees of economic stability for retirees and pensioners.

  • Demonstrators cited constitutional violations related to welfare obligations.

• Civil and Political Rights:

  • 70 protests demanded justice for arbitrary detentions, particularly of union leaders, activists, and opposition supporters.

  • 61 protests focused on electoral transparency and denounced fines and sanctions targeting businesses assisting opposition campaigns.

Geographic Distribution:

• Top States:

  • Sucre (58), Bolívar (51), Anzoátegui (47), Distrito Capital (28), Carabobo (25).

• Lowest Activity:

  • Guárico, Amazonas, and Apure (1 each), highlighting media blackouts in rural areas.

Economic Grievances and Government Response:

• Workers and retirees protested low wages and the government’s failure to deliver the salary increases promised in March 2022.

• The government passed the Law of Pension Protection, adding financial burdens on the private sector, and sparking labor unrest.

June 2024

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June 14 – Johnny Rivas, a regional deputy, and Voluntad Popular (VP) coordinator, was arbitrarily arrested by the PNB’s Criminal Investigation Division while waiting in line for gasoline in Caraballeda, La Guaira. ²⁶

(Photo Credit: EVTV)

• Luis López, a journalist covering Rivas’s detention, was reported missing after heading to the site. ²⁷

(Photo Credit: @VenteDDHH | X)

• JeanCarlos Rivas, a youth coordinator for Voluntad Popular, was reported missing in Maiquetía on the same day. ²⁸

(Photo Credit: @VoluntadPopular | X)

June 15 – Juan Iriarte, an organizational leader for Vente Venezuela in Vargas, was arrested early in the morning following Edmundo González’s visit to La Guaira.²⁹

(Photo Credit: @VenteDDHH | X)

June 17 – Gabriel González, a journalist and activist for Vente Venezuela, was arrested by Sebin agents in Plaza Altamira, Chacao.³⁰

(Photo Credit: @VenteDDHH | X)

June 19 – Jhillkys Arcila, coordinator of Organization for Vente Venezuela in Vargas and member of the Con Vzla campaign team in Vargas, was detained (later released) by authorities.³¹

• Franco Gerratana, coordinator of Con Vzla in Ortiz, Guárico, was also detained (later released) on the same day.³²

• 10 opposition mayors who declared support for Edmundo González Urrutia were disqualified from holding public office for 15 years. The affected mayors were:³³

1. Heriberto Materán – Mayor of Motatán, Trujillo.

2. José Carrillo – Mayor of Urdaneta, Trujillo.

3. Dilcia Rojas – Mayor Campo Elías, Trujillo.

4. Keiver Peña – Mayor of Sucre, Trujillo.

5. Cervando Godoy – Mayor of José Felipe Márquez Cañizales, Trujillo.

6. Wilmer Delgado – Mayor of Monte Carmelo, Trujillo.

7. Yohanthi Domínguez – Mayor of Carache, Trujillo.

8. Francisco Aguilar – Mayor of Andrés Bello, Trujillo.

9. Iraima Vásquez – Mayor of Tubores, Nueva Esparta.

10. José María Fermín – Mayor of Villalba, Nueva Esparta.

June 20 – Yonnhy Liscano, mayor of Ayacucho Municipality in Táchira, was arrested in the early hours of the day.³⁴

(Photo Credit: Maduradas)

June 27 – Carlos Tovar, the coordinator of the comanditos de Motorizados in Aragua for Vente Venezuela, was disappeared by alleged police officers without any identification.³⁵

(Photo Credit: @ECMY12 | X)

June 28 – During a political coordination meeting, CICPC (Criminal and Forensic Investigation Police Corps) attempted to re-arrest Gerratana. Local citizens and municipal workers intervened, blocking CICPC officers from carrying out the arrest. The CICPC officers were ultimately forced to withdraw without detaining Gerratana.³⁶

July 2024

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July 4 – Ignacio Monique and Aldo Rosso, activists and members of Voluntad Popular (VP), were arbitrarily detained by authorities.³⁷

(Photo Credit: @VoluntadPopular | X)

July 12 – Denys Manrique, coordinator of Vente Venezuela in Anaco, was arrested along with César Tiapa, a union leader, by security forces in Anzoátegui.³⁸

(Photo Credit: @VenteDDHH | X)

• Ricardo Albacete Vidal, a businessman and supporter of Maria Corina Machado, was detained in Caracas by Sebin agents, allegedly for providing lodging to María Corina Machado during her campaign visit to Táchira.³⁹

(Photo Credit: Infobae)

• Wilmer "Willy" Ramón Álvarez, a musician and songwriter for Edmundo Gonzalez Urrtia’s campaign, was detained at a military checkpoint in Peracal, municipio Bolívar, Táchira state.

• Brayhan de Jesús Hernández and Ricardo Pino, both friends of Wilmer "Willy" Álvarez, were arrested as well.⁴⁰

(Photo Credit: La Nacion Web)

July 13 – Ángel Félix Aristimuño, regional president of Un Nuevo Tiempo in Monagas and campaign coordinator for Edmundo González, was arrested in Maturín by agents of the Dirección de Inteligencia Estratégica (DIE) of the Policía Nacional Bolivariana (PNB).⁴¹

(Photo Credit: El Impulso)

• Néstor Luis Viloria Cardozo, Elisaul Rodríguez, and Mire Eduardo Aguilar, drivers of a campaign truck used to transport equipment for María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia, were arrested shortly after completing their work.⁴²

July 14 – Mary Rodríguez, electoral campaign chief for Vente Venezuela in Guanare, and Mayra Montilla, a member of the party’s political team, were detained during a police and military raid conducted in the early morning hours. Their homes were raided in the El Progreso neighborhood (Sector 3, Calle 19) by agents from the Directorate General of Military Counterintelligence (DGCIM) and local state police, dressed in civilian clothing but using official patrol vehicles.⁴³

(Photo Credit: Primicias Portuguesa)

July 17 – Milciades Ávila, the head of security for opposition leader María Corina Machado, was detained (released one day later) by Venezuelan authorities just days before the presidential election.⁴⁴

July 20 – Viviana Save, an opposition organizer from the state of Trujillo, goes into hiding, eventually fleeing the country.⁴⁵

(Photo Credit: @VivianaSave | X)

July 23 – Five Opposition Mayors in Trujillo Declare Independence and Support Nicolás Maduro: Dilcia Rojas (Campo Elías), Wilmer Delgado (Monte Carmelo), Heriberto Materan Tapia (Motatán), Francisco Aguilar (Andrés Bello), and Cervando Godoy (José Felipe Márquez Cañizales) announced their break from the opposition coalition Comando con Venezuela. They declared themselves “independent” and endorsed Nicolás Maduro’s reelection bid in a public statement.⁴⁶

(Photo Credit: Venezuela-News)

July 27 – Alejandro González, a Vente Venezuela leader in the municipality of Roscio, Guárico, was detained at 2:00 a.m. by PNB agents.⁴⁷

(Photo Credit: Monitoreamos)

July 28 – Presidential Election⁴⁸

• Venezuela held its presidential election amidst accusations of electoral fraud, lack of transparency, and irregularities.

• The National Electoral Council (CNE) declared Nicolás Maduro the winner with 51% of the vote.

• Opposition candidate Edmundo González and María Corina Machado rejected the results, alleging fraud.

• The opposition published precinct-level tally sheets showing González winning by a significant margin, while international observers, including the Carter Center, questioned the credibility of the results.

• Maria Corina Machado goes into hiding sporadically emerging to lead anti-

  government protests

(Photo Credit: FEDERICO PARRA | AFP vía Getty Images)

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July 29-30, 2024 – Protests and Crackdowns⁴⁹

• Mass protests erupted across Venezuela, particularly in low-income areas traditionally supportive of Chavismo, demanding a transparent vote audit.

• 915 protests were recorded, with 138 violently repressed by security forces and armed civilian groups (colectivos).

• 24 protesters were killed by gunfire, and 2,229 people were arrested, including 114 children. Many were charged with terrorism and incitement to hatred.

(Photo Credit: Human Rights Watch)

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Key Incidents of Violence and Repression⁵⁰

Caracas District

• Anthony Enrique García Cañizalez (20) – Shot dead during protests near the Abigail González School.

(Photo Credit: Human Rights Watch)

• Olinger Johan Montaño López (23) – Killed by gunfire while protesting in El Valle.

(Photo Credit: Human Rights Watch)

• Aníbal José Romero Salazar (24) – Shot in the head by security forces in Antímano while protesting.

(Photo Credit: Human Rights Watch)

Maracay (Aragua State)

• Rancés Daniel Yzarra Bolívar (30) – Shot in the chest near a military compound during protests.

(Photo Credit: Human Rights Watch)

• Five others, including National Guard officer José Antonio Torrents Blanca, were also killed during clashes.

Miranda State (July 30)

• Yorgenis Emiliano Leyva Méndez (35) – Shot and killed during protests in Ambrosio Plaza.

(Photo Credit: Human Rights Watch)

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State Repression – “Operation Tun Tun”

• Authorities launched “Operation Tun Tun”, targeting low-income areas with illegal raids, forced disappearances, and mass arrests.

• Detainees faced incommunicado detention, forced confessions, and virtual hearings without legal representation.

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On July 29 – Martín Prieto, a member of Vente Venezuela, was arrested in Aragua state as part of the post-election crackdown targeting opposition activists associated with María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia.⁵¹

July 30 – Defense Minister Padrino López accused the opposition of attempting a coup d’état following the protests. He claimed foreign imperialist nations financed the demonstrations to destabilize Venezuela. Padrino reaffirmed the armed forces' support for Maduro and announced that the government had a political dialogue to ease tensions.⁵²

• Ricardo Estévez (Caracas) – Electoral Technician and Founding Member of Súmate, was arrested in the El Cafetal district of Caracas while leaving his home.⁵³

(Photo Credit: El Pitazo)

• Ubencio Gil Pacheco and Jorge Sarmiento, both members of Vente Venezuela, were arrested in Trujillo state as part of the post-election crackdown targeting opposition activists linked to María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia.⁵⁴

• Freddy Superlano, the Voluntad Popular (VP) leader, was arrested by SEBIN agents and later transferred El Helicoide. His wife, Aurora Silva, reported that he was tortured to force a confession implicating opposition leaders María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia in crimes.⁵⁵

(Photo Credit: Leonardo Fernández Viloria | Reuters)

July 31 – Alejandro Castro, a Vente Venezuela activist in the municipality of Francisco Linares Alcántara, was detained by PNB officers. He was allegedly accused by a United Socialist Party of Venezuela member of participating in opposition activities during the July 28 presidential election.⁵⁶

• José Ángel Ruiz, a member of Vente Venezuela, was arrested in Vargas state as part of the post-election crackdown targeting opposition activists associated with María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia.⁵⁷

July 31 – Venezuelan authorities surround the Argentine embassy in Caracas housing six political dissidents, cutting off electricity and water to the embassy, effectively placing it under siege. The siege sparked international condemnation, with Argentina, the U.S., and the European Union urging Venezuela to respect diplomatic norms and allow the activists to safely leave the country.⁵⁸

• The Organization of American States (OAS) called for an impartial verification of the election results and demanded the release of precinct-level tally sheets.

• The European Union, United States, and Latin American governments demanded Maduro respect the electoral outcome, protect protesters, and stop arbitrary arrests.

• Human Rights Watch reported ongoing killings, mass arrests, and torture of protesters, urging the International Criminal Court to investigate crimes against humanity in Venezuela.

Protests and Repression in July 2024⁵⁹

Protests Registered:

• 1,311 protests documented, averaging 44 per day

• 70% of protests occurred on July 29 and 30 following the announcement of presidential election results.

• Focus on civil-political rights (90%), primarily demanding transparency, electoral fairness, and political accountability.

Repression:

• 159 protests were violently repressed in 23 states, with 138 crackdowns occurring on July 29 and 30 alone.

• 24 people were killed, mostly by gunfire in low-income areas, and 2,229 arrests.

• Reports of arbitrary detentions, forced disappearances, and a government security operation called “Operación Tun Tun” targeted activists and opposition supporters.

• Allegations of torture and mistreatment of detainees and many were held without charges or legal representation.

Key Protests by Sector:

Political Rights:

• 1,137 protests demanded political participation rights and transparency in the electoral process.

• Demonstrations included cacerolazos (pot-banging protests) and occupations of public squares.

• Justice and Accountability:

  • 303 protests focused on justice, denouncing state repression and calling for due process for detainees.

  • Families demanded accountability for extrajudicial killings and arrests under fabricated charges.

• Economic and Social Rights (DESCA):

  • 134 protests (10%) demanded better living conditions, including access to housing, water, electricity, and public services.

  • 79 protests focused on housing issues, with complaints about lack of infrastructure and environmental degradation.

  • 47 labor protests demanded wage increases and job security, particularly in education, healthcare, and public sectors.

August 2024

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August 1 – Diplomatic Expulsions and Brazil's Role⁶⁰

• Diplomatic Expulsions: President Nicolás Maduro expelled diplomats from Argentina, Peru, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Chile, Panama, and Uruguay after these countries questioned the legitimacy of the recent election.

• Brazil's Diplomatic Representation: In response, Argentina and Peru requested Brazil represent their interests in Caracas. The Brazilian Embassy in Venezuela assumed responsibility for overseeing the protection of Argentine and Peruvian embassies and consulates and managing diplomatic matters with the Venezuelan government on behalf of these countries.

• Protection of Opposition Members: With Argentina's diplomatic presence expelled, these individuals relied on Brazil for diplomatic protection. Brazil’s international affairs advisor, Celso Amorim, met with Maduro, urging him to prevent any embassy raids and warning of potentially catastrophic consequences.

August 1 – Romano Medina Guido, coordinator for Vente Venezuela in the municipio Sucre, Trujillo, was arrested as part of the post-election crackdown targeting opposition activists connected to María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia.⁶¹

August 2 – Eduardo Daboín, a member of Vente Venezuela, was arrested in Trujillo state as part of the ongoing crackdown against María Corina Machado's "Comanditos" following the July 28 presidential election. Authorities accused him of being part of the so-called "Comanditos del Terror", the grassroots organizational network Machado had mobilized for electoral defense and campaign outreach.⁶²

(Photo Credit: @dhernandezlarez | X)

• Ana Carolina Guaita, a journalist for La Patilla (an independent Venezuelan news outlet), was arrested.⁶³

(Photo Credit: Infobae)

August 3 – José Ruiz and his son Andrés Ruiz, both members of Vente Venezuela, were arrested in Playa El Ángel, Nueva Esparta, as part of the crackdown against opposition activists.⁶⁴

(Photo Credit: El Tiempo)

August 6 –María Oropeza, coordinator of María Corina Machado's campaign in Portuguesa state, was arbitrarily detained by agents of the Dirección General de Contrainteligencia Militar (DGCIM). Oropeza streamed the arrest live on Instagram, capturing the moment when DGCIM agents forced entry into her home without a warrant.⁶⁵

(Video Credit: @VenteDDHH | X)

• Paúl León, a cameraman for VPITV (an independent Venezuelan media outlet), was arrested while filming post-election protests in Trujillo.⁶⁶

(Photo Credit: NTN24)

August 7 – Anny Molina Vásquez, a member of Vente Venezuela, was arrested by security forces in the state of Zulia as part of the post-election crackdown targeting opposition activists.⁶⁷

(Video Credit: @redradiove | Instagram)

• Adonis Alejandro Torres, a member of Vente Venezuela, was arrested in Aragua state by security forces as part of the nationwide crackdown on opposition activists linked to María Corina Machado’s campaign.⁶⁸

• Carlos Chancellor, a Politician, member of La Causa R, and former four-time mayor of Sifontes, Bolívar State, was arrested at the La Guarapera checkpoint in El Tigre, Anzoátegui State, by SEBIN agents.⁶⁹

(Photo Credit: Correo De Caroni)

August 8 – Johandri Alaña, Secretary Executive of Vente Venezuela in the municipio Cristo de Aranza, Maracaibo, was arrested by security forces in Zulia state as part of the post-election crackdown targeting opposition activists.⁷⁰

(Photo Credit: @VenteDDHH | X)

• Javier Mendoza, a member of Vente Venezuela, was arrested in the state of Trujillo as part of the post-election crackdown targeting opposition activists associated with María Corina Machado’s campaign.⁷¹

August 9 – Henry Salazar, a member of Vente Venezuela was arrested in the state of Aragua as part of the post-election crackdown targeting opposition activists associated with María Corina Machado’s campaign.⁷²

(Photo Credit: @VenteDDHH | X)

• Yuleny Aranguren, Coordinator of the Women’s Volunteer Network for Vente Venezuela in Biruaca, Apure, and nurse who organized community health care events, was arrested in Biruaca, Apure, by PNB officers.⁷³

(Photo Credit: TalCual)

• Américo De Grazia, a former mayor and leader of Guayana Libre, was disappeared by unidentified security forces and allegedly transferred to El Helicoide, 24 hours later.⁷⁴

(Photo Credit: @AnaMariaDiez | X)

• Williams Dávila Barrios, the former Governor of Mérida and member of Acción Democrática (AD) was detained by “colectivos” (pro-government paramilitary groups) during a vigil for political detainees held in Plaza Los Palos Grandes, Chacao, Caracas.⁷⁵

(Photo Credit: @williamsdavila | X)

August 15 – Virgilio Laverde, Youth Coordinator of Vente Venezuela in Bolívar state, was arrested by CICPC agents.⁷⁶

(Photo Credit: Vente Joven | Facebook)

August 17 – Yonaiker Paredes and Manuel Navarro, members of Vente Venezuela were arrested in the state of Miranda as part of the post-election crackdown targeting opposition activists associated with María Corina Machado’s campaign.⁷⁷

• César Enrique Contreras, a member of ConVzla, linked to Edmundo González's campaign, was arrested in the state of Carabobo by CONAS (National Anti-Extortion and Kidnapping Command).⁷⁸

• Juan Diego Lucena, the Youth Coordinator for Vente Venezuela in Andrés Eloy Blanco, Lara State, was arrested in the state of Lara as part of the post-election crackdown targeting opposition activists associated with María Corina Machado’s campaign.⁷⁹

(Photo Credit: El Impulso)

• Venezuelan activists organized rallies in multiple cities across Latin America and beyond, including Barcelona, Maracaibo, Maracay, Valencia, Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Santiago, Bogotá, and Lima. These protests aimed to demand transparency in the electoral process and denounce alleged fraud.⁸⁰

August 24 – Luis Istúriz, the Political Secretary of Vente Venezuela in Miranda state, was arrested along with his wife, Andriuska Sánchez, by SEBIN agents after they forced their entry into his home without a warrant.⁸¹

(Photo Credit: Infobae)

• Perkins Rocha, member of Vente Venezuela, Legal Coordinator of ConVzla, and personal lawyer for María Corina Machado, was kidnapped by unidentified security forces in Caracas.⁸²

(Photo Credit: Infobae)

August 25 – Carmela Longo, a veteran journalist who covers entertainment news at Últimas Noticias, was arrested alongside her son after PNB officers raided their home in Urbanización Horizonte, Caracas.⁸³

(Photo Credit: Infobae)

August 27 and 30 – Nationwide Blackouts⁸⁴

• August 27 Blackout: A major power outage affected 12 states in Venezuela around 19:12 VET, with service restorations beginning approximately an hour later.

• August 30 Blackout: A more extensive blackout occurred, impacting over 20 states from 04:50. Many regions experienced power outages lasting up to 12 hours, with some areas enduring blackouts for 20 hours.

August 28 – María Corina Machado called for nationwide protests to mark one month since the disputed election. Demonstrations occurred in Caracas and other cities, with participants rejecting the Supreme Tribunal of Justice's validation of Maduro's victory. Despite facing repression, opposition leaders and supporters continued to demand transparency and the release of detained political figures.⁸⁵

• Biagio Pilieri, the leader of Convergencia Venezuela and a prominent opposition figure aligned with Maria Corina Machado and the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD), was disappeared near El Helicoide, after attending a protest rally.⁸⁶

(Photo Credit: Yaracuy al Dia)

Protests and Repression in August 2024⁸⁷

Protests Registered:

• 413 protests documented, averaging 14 per day

• Focus on civil-political rights (89%), including demands for electoral transparency, justice, and the release of detained protesters.

Repression:

• Security forces violently repressed 22 protests across 9 states.

• Allegations of torture, mistreatment, and arbitrary detentions involving more than 2,400 detainees, including over 100 minors and 200 women.

• Families protested outside detention centers demanding due process and judicial transparency for political prisoners.

Key Protests by Sector:

• Political Rights:

  • 344 protests demanded recognition of election results, justice, and respect for democratic rights.

  • Led by opposition figures, including María Corina Machado, in rejection of Nicolás Maduro’s declared victory.

  • Protests peaked on August 3, 17, and 28, accounting for 64% of actions.

• Labor Rights:

  • 15 protests by public sector workers, retirees, and pensioners demanding better salaries and working conditions.

  • Highlighted economic distress, as wages remained below $3.50 per month.

• Basic Services and Housing:

  • 28 protests focused on housing issues and collapsing services, including water shortages, poor drainage, and power outages.

  • A nationwide blackout left much of the country without power for 8–24 hours in late August.

Deaths and Violence:

• 25 deaths documented during post-election protests, mostly caused by firearm injuries attributed to security forces and Colectivos.

• Patterns of state-sponsored repression included mass arrests, raids, and the use of lethal force to suppress dissent.

September 2024

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September 3 – Venezuelan authorities issued an arrest warrant against opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González on charges of “conspiracy,” “incitement to disobedience,” and “destabilization” related to the July 28 presidential election.⁸⁸

September 6 – SEBIN agents surrounded the Argentine embassy in Caracas. Electricity was cut off to the embassy, and Vente Venezuela described the situation as a siege.⁸⁹

September 7 – The Maduro government revoked Brazil's authority to represent Argentina’s diplomatic interests in Venezuela and its oversight of the Argentine embassy.⁹⁰

• Sandro Javier Rodríguez, a member of Vente Venezuela was arrested in the state of Lara as part of the post-election crackdown targeting opposition activists associated with María Corina Machado’s campaign.⁹¹

September 8 – Opposition candidate Edmundo González fled Venezuela and sought political asylum in Spain. The Spanish government confirmed González’s departure on a Spanish Air Force plane at his request.⁹²

September 12 – The United States imposed sanctions on 16 Maduro allies, accusing them of voter suppression and human rights abuses in connection with the post-election crackdown.⁹³

September 14 – Authorities arrested six foreign nationals, accusing them of plotting to destabilize Venezuela and assassinate President Nicolás Maduro.
Arrested Individuals:

• José María Basoa Valdovinos (Spain)

• Andrés Martínez Adasme (Spain)

• Wilbert Joseph Castaneda – A U.S. Navy SEAL

• David Estrella (U.S.)

• Aaron Barren Logan (U.S.)

• Jan Darmovzal (Czech Republic)

• Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello alleged the detainees were linked to foreign intelligence agencies (CIA and CNI) and Vente Venezuela.

• 400 weapons that were allegedly smuggled into Venezuela to be used in the plot were seized.⁹⁴

(Photo Credit: EL PAÍS English)

September 19 – Luis Gonzalo Pérez, a journalist and videographer for Marina Corina Machado, fled the country after two months in hiding.⁹⁵

(Photo Credit: @luisgonzaloprz | Instagram)

• The European Parliament officially recognized Edmundo González as the legitimate president of Venezuela.⁹⁶

September 23 – A Caracas court issued arrest warrants for Argentine President Javier Milei, his sister and adviser Karina Milei, and Security Minister Patricia Bullrich over the seizure of a Venezuelan aircraft in Buenos Aires for violating U.S. sanctions.

• In response, an Argentine federal court issued an arrest order against President Nicolás Maduro, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, and several Venezuelan officials for crimes against humanity.⁹⁷

September 26 – Pedro Guanipa, the Vice President of Primero Justicia (PJ) and Director of the Maracaibo Mayor’s Office, was arrested while attempting to travel to Colombia.⁹⁸

(Photo Credit: @pedroguanipav | X)

September 27 –Milciades Ávila, the Chief of Security for opposition leader María Corina Machado, and Edwin Moya, a member of her security team, were arrested by PNB officers in Caracas.⁹⁹

(Photo Credit: EL PAÍS)

Protests and Repression – September 2024¹⁰⁰

• 290 protests documented, averaging 10 daily, focusing on:

  • Political rights (50%) – Demands for justice, freedom for detainees, and release of election tallies.

  • Economic rights (50%) – Protests over wages, pensions, and public services.

• Repression:

  • Reports of arbitrary detentions, torture, and forced disappearances targeting activists and opposition leaders.

  • Women played a leading role in protests, particularly demanding the release of minors arrested during post-election demonstrations.

October 2024

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October 1 – Julio Itriago, the Coordinator of Vente Venezuela in the municipality of Freites, Anaco, state of Anzoátegui, was disappeared by unidentified security forces in the state of Anzoátegui.¹⁰¹

(Photo Credit: @VenteDDHH | X)

• Renny Alberto Rodríguez, the Coordinador de Formación in Anzoátegui and campaign director in El Tigre, Anzoátegui was arrested while teaching math to students at his home.

(Photo Credit: El Tiempo)

• Carlos Enrique Gamboa, the Coordinator of the Movimiento Independientes supporting María Corina Machado in Pariaguán, Anzoátegui, was arrested by CICPC agents in Pariaguán, Anzoátegui.¹⁰²

(Photo Credit: El Tiempo)

October 3 – Javier Ramírez, the Coordinator of Vente Venezuela in Nicolás Pulido parish, Sucre municipality, Barinas state, was arrested by SEBIN agents while returning home from work.¹⁰³

(Photo Credit: Talcual)

October 10 – Military Purges Begin¹⁰⁴

• General Ramón Antonio Cruells Martínez, Commander of Zone 52 of the Bolivarian National Guard (GNB) in Anzoátegui, was arrested on fuel smuggling charges and collaboration with criminal gangs.

(Photo Credit: Infobae)

• Colonel Daniel Morón Cañizales, Commander of Detachment 521 in Puerto La Cruz, Anzoátegui, was also detained on similar charges.

• Comisario Mayor Jesús José García Rivero, Director of the Oriental Police Region (Redip Oriental) and Coordinator of Police Command Centers in Anzoátegui, was arrested for corruption and involvement in organized crime.

(Photo Credit: Infobae)

• Investigations also implicated General Richard José Rondón Liendo, Commander of Zone 51 of the GNB in Monagas, for alleged ties to smuggling operations and criminal network

October 13 – Military Arrests Intensify

• General Vidal José Francisco Coraspe, Director of Land Defense Operations for the Eastern Defense Region (REDI), was arrested.

  • Accused of plotting against Governor Luis José Marcano of Anzoátegui and conspiring against the Maduro regime.

  • Reports indicated he was tortured, kept in chains, and drugged while detained at DGCIM (Military Counterintelligence) headquarters.

(Photo Credit: Infobae)

• Raúl Rafael Somoza Gámez, Commander of the 25th Mechanized Infantry Brigade in Táchira, was arrested under unspecified charges linked to conspiracy

(Photo Credit: Infobae)

October 16 – María Corina Machado denied Nicolás Maduro's claims that she had fled Venezuela to Spain, asserting that she remains in the country.¹⁰⁵

October 17 – Venezuelan authorities announced the arrest of 19 foreign nationals over the past month, including seven Americans, two Spaniards, several Colombians, one Peruvian, one Lebanese, and one Czech, for allegedly plotting to overthrow President Nicolás Maduro. Among those detained were:

• Gregory David Weber (U.S.) – Accused of cyberattacks against state institutions.

• David Gutenberg Guillaume (U.S.) – Accused of being the coup plotters’ paramedic.

• Jonathan Pagan González (U.S.) – Arrested in Zulia, accused of plotting attacks against Maduro.

• Jorge Marcelo Vargas (U.S.-Bolivian) – Detained while photographing refineries, suspected of surveillance.

• Authorities linked the arrests to U.S. and Spanish intelligence agencies, citing weapons seizures and alleged destabilization plans.¹⁰⁶

October 20 – Ahiza Maestre, Director of the National Institute for Female Orientation (INOF) since 2022, was arrested on corruption charges and transferred to the PNB headquarters.¹⁰⁷

October 21 – Pedro Tellechea, former Minister of Petroleum and President of PDVSA, was arrested along with close collaborators for allegedly leaking sensitive information to U.S. intelligence services and undermining national interests.¹⁰⁸

(Photo Credit: Talcual)

October 25 – Edwin Santos, an activist from the opposition party Voluntad Popular, was found murdered. The killing sparked accusations against the Maduro regime for targeting political dissidents, echoing the 2019 assassination of opposition leader Edmundo “Pipo” Rada.¹⁰⁹

(Photo Credit: EL PAÍS)

Protests and Repression in October 2024¹¹⁰

• Protests Registered:

  • 359 protests documented, averaging 12 per day

  • Focus on economic rights (79%) and civil-political rights (21%), including demands for better wages, public services, and the release of detained protesters, particularly minors.

• Repression:

  • Security forces violently repressed 2 protests.

  • Allegations of torture and mistreatment of detainees, including minors.

  • Families of detainees protested outside detention centers demanding due process and transparency.

• Key Protests by Sector:

  • Labor Rights: 113 protests—education, healthcare, and public sector workers demanded better salaries and benefits.

  • Housing and Services: 104 protests over water shortages, poor drainage, and lack of electricity.

  • Fuel Shortages: 14 protests in 6 states over lack of gasoline and irregularities in distribution.

November 2024

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November 5 – The Supreme Court (TSJ) rejected an appeal against the National Electoral Council (CNE) demanding the release of detailed election results. Attorney María Alejandra Díaz was fined, suspended, and faces disciplinary actions for filing the case.¹¹¹

(Photo Credit: EL PAÍS)

November 7 – Political leaders, including Juan Barreto, met with Attorney General Tarek William Saab to request a review of cases for over 2,000 detainees, including minors, held after post-election protests.¹¹²

November 14 – Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López restructured the military command, removing heads of all Operational Defense Zones (ZODI) across 21 states, signaling loyalty enforcement amid political instability.¹¹³

• Jesús Manuel Martínez Medina, detained since July 29 for safeguarding election results for the opposition, died in custody due to medical neglect.¹¹⁴

(Photo Credit: Efecto Cocuyo)

November 16 – 107 political prisoners were released, per Foro Penal. Releases occurred in prisons like Tocuyito and Tocorón, with videos showing emotional reunions.¹¹⁵

November 20 – Pedro Velazco, President of the Judicial Circuit of Maracaibo, along with judges Maurelys Vilchez and Maryorie Plaza, were arrested by SEBIN and DGCIM agents in the Palace of Justice. Charges remain undisclosed.¹¹⁶

(Photo Credit: @VPITV | X)

November 21 – Arianna Pinto (20), suffering from chronic renal failure, remains hospitalized under police custody after being arrested on August 1 and charged with terrorism and inciting hatred. Her mother appealed to Attorney General Tarek William Saab for her release on humanitarian grounds, as Pinto's health continues to deteriorate in detention.¹¹⁷

(Photo Credit: El Pitazo)

November 23 – The Argentine Embassy in Caracas was besieged by security forces (SEBIN, DAET) following activist Magalli Meda’s call for global protests against Maduro. Power and water were cut off, access was blocked, and drones monitored movements, sparking international condemnation.¹¹⁸

November 26–28 – The Siege of the Argentine Embassy escalated with armed agents reported outside the embassy and occupying nearby buildings. Opposition leaders and international entities denounced the situation as torture and hostage-taking.

November 27 – 10 military officers, including General Rafael García Fernández and Colonel Euclides Rafael Gómez Salazar, were arrested in Amazonas for treason. Accused of allowing unauthorized aircraft from Brazil to land in a border military base.¹¹⁹

Protests and Repression in November 2024¹²⁰

Protests Registered:

• 249 protests documented, averaging 8 per day,

• 61% of protests focused on economic, social, cultural, and environmental rights (DESCA), mainly addressing basic services and housing.

• 39% of protests centered on civil and political rights (DCP), highlighting demands for justice, political participation, and freedom for detainees.

Repression:

• 5 protests were violently repressed in 5 states, involving criminalization, arbitrary detentions, and police brutality.

• Reports of torture and corruption in police operations sparked 3 protests against state security forces.

• Hunger strikes were staged by detainees in response to delays in trials, overcrowding, and unsanitary conditions in prisons.

Key Protests by Sector:

• Basic Services and Housing:

  • 76 protests (31%) demanded access to water, electricity, and waste management improvements.

  • 27 protests denounced power outages, causing food spoilage, medical disruptions, and economic losses.

  • 18 protests called for clean water amid rationing and reliance on expensive water deliveries.

  • 10 protests highlighted poor sewage systems leading to health hazards and environmental degradation.

  • Additional protests addressed road conditions (9), waste collection (8), and gas shortages (2).

• Labor Rights:

  • 64 protests (26%) focused on wage increases, collective bargaining, and holiday bonuses.

  • Public sector workers, including educators, healthcare professionals, and transport workers, demanded salary adjustments to combat hyperinflation.

  • Health workers raised alarms over staff shortages, deteriorating infrastructure, and lack of medical supplies.

• Civil and Political Rights (DCP):

  • 98 protests (39%) focused on justice (72), political participation (50), and freedom of expression (40).

  • Families of political prisoners staged vigils and marches demanding fair trials and release of detainees.

  • Demonstrations opposed the NGO Law, which criminalizes civil society groups and curtails human rights advocacy.

Geographic Distribution:

• Top States:

  • District Capital (34), Carabobo (33), Anzoátegui (24), Lara (23), Portuguesa (14), Sucre (13).

• Lowest Activity:

  • Amazonas (0), Delta Amacuro (1), Yaracuy (2).

December 2024

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December 8 – Argentine gendarme Nahuel Agustín Gallo was detained in Venezuela on accusations of espionage after entering the country legally to visit his family. He was later held in El Helicoide.

December 9 – Argentina condemned the detention and demanded his immediate release. Uruguay, Costa Rica, and Paraguay reaffirmed their support for Argentina’s claim and denounced violations of diplomatic immunity in Venezuela.¹²¹

(Photo Credit: Infobae)

December 10 – Human rights activist Rocío San Miguel was shown in photos for the first time after being detained. She was granted medical attention and approved for surgery following international pressure.¹²²

(Photo Credit: ABC)

• Masked men abducted opposition leader Jesús Armas linked to the DGCIM while in a café in Baruta, Caracas. He was tortured in a clandestine detention center.¹²³

(Photo Credit: @osmarycnn | X)

December 11 – Argentina’s foreign minister, Gerardo Werthein, raised concerns at the OAS and demanded diplomatic protections and asylum rights for detainees. Supported by 12 countries, including Canada, the U.S., and Chile, Argentina warned of a “potential tragedy.”¹²⁴

December 14 – Jesús Álvarez, a political prisoner, died under State custody in Tocuyito Prison. Reports indicated a lack of medical care, malnutrition, and physical abuse. Authorities delayed releasing his decomposed body to his son, raising suspicions about the cause of death.¹²⁵

(Photo Credit: El Diario)

December 15 – Journalist Jesús Medina released videos from inside Ramo Verde Prison, exposing torture testimonies and human rights abuses recorded secretly. Renato Ernesto Camilo Puerta and Luis Alejandro Mogollón shared graphic accounts of torture, including skull fractures and beatings.¹²⁶

(Photo Credit: @jesusmedinae | X)

December 16 – Osgual González Pérez, another political prisoner, died under State custody in Tocuyito Prison, allegedly from untreated hepatitis.¹²⁷

(Photo Credit: Infobae)

December 18 – Venezuela offered negotiations for safe passage for asylum seekers in exchange for releasing detainees in Argentina and Ecuador (including Jorge Glas). Ecuador confirmed Maduro’s attempts to bargain for Jorge Glas’s release and rejected negotiations.¹²⁸

December 19 – Fernando Martínez Mottola, former minister of Carlos Andrés Pérez and a refugee in the Argentine embassy, surrendered to authorities after nine months of isolation.¹²⁹

(Photo Credit: Poder Opedia)

• Torture details of Jesús Armas revealed—he was asphyxiated with plastic bags in a clandestine SEBIN site to force confessions about opposition activities.¹³⁰

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December 20 – Seven political prisoners were injured as DGCIM forces raided Ramo Verde Prison, where they exercised brutality and intimidation. New testimonies emerged, including recordings of prisoner abuses by guards.¹³¹

(Photo Credit: Infobae)

• Jesús Armas was transferred multiple times, including to SEBIN headquarters, as part of ongoing psychological pressure and physical torture.

December 24 – Luis Tarbay, a prominent activist and coordinator of the Mundo Con Venezuela initiative, was disappeared by unidentified security forces on Christmas Eve, following an announcement by Venezuela’s Public Ministry regarding the release of over 900 political prisoners.¹³²

(Photo Credit: @ConVzlaComando | X)

December 28 – Gregorio “Goyo” Graterol, coordinator of Primero Justicia in Falcón, was arrested along with his nephew Carlos Manuel Chirinos Graterol and José Rafael Granadillo Ortega. They face charges of conspiracy, usurpation of functions, and financing terrorism. Authorities seized their vehicle, phones, and documents.

(Photo Credit: Talcual) ¹³³

Patterns of Repression

The Maduro regime employs systematic repression to suppress the opposition, combining physical intimidation, legal persecution, and psychological tactics to consolidate power. One method involves targeted arrests of opposition leaders, activists, and journalists, often framing them as collaborators with foreign adversaries like the United States. For example, in February 2024, authorities arrested the NGO Control Ciudadano President, Rocío San Miguel, accusing her of participating in a U.S.-backed conspiracy to assassinate Maduro. By painting the opposition as agents of foreign influence, the regime legitimizes its crackdowns while undermining public trust in opposition leaders, portraying them as traitors to the nation.

Paramilitary groups known as colectivos serve as one of the most effective tools of repression for the Maduro regime. These armed criminal groups operate as extensions of state power, enforcing government control through intimidation, violence, and surveillance. In July 2024 following the July 28 presidential elections they played an active role in violently suppressing protests, leading to deaths and widespread injuries. Operating alongside security forces with impunity, they frequently target opposition strongholds, breaking up demonstrations and instilling fear in communities through displays of force.

Beyond their role as enforcers, colectivos also serve a social function that reinforces their influence. They distribute essential goods such as food, medicine, and cooking gas in poor neighborhoods, filling gaps left by the collapsing state infrastructure¹³⁴. This dual role as providers and enforcers creates a dependency that deters communities from opposing the regime, as the people fear losing access to critical resources if they resist government policies. Colectivos reinforce the regime’s ability to respond swiftly to dissent while shielding official forces from direct accountability.

Lawfare is the strategic use of legal proceedings to intimidate or hinder an opponent. ¹³⁵Lawfare serves as another tool for Maduro’s repression. The regime has enacted a series of laws to criminalize dissent and dismantle civil society. The Anti-Fascism Law proposed in April 2024, grants broad powers to prosecute individuals accused of promoting extremism or destabilizing the government. Similarly, the Law Against NGOs, approved in January 2024, imposes severe restrictions on civil society organizations, including requirements to disclose funding sources and activities. This law effectively criminalizes receiving foreign aid, branding NGOs as foreign agents and forcing many to shut down operations.

Opposition leaders frequently face vague and politically motivated charges, including terrorism, conspiracy, and treason. For example, in March 2024, authorities arrested members of the opposition and accused them of planning attacks on military bases as part of a destabilization plot. These charges, often unsupported by evidence, serve to delegitimize opposition figures and justify lengthy detentions without trial. The regime also extends persecution to members of the military to prevent defections and dissent. In January, October, and November 2024, dozens of military officers were dismissed and/or arrested for multiple charges ranging from treason to corruption. Such purges reinforce fear and loyalty within the armed forces, discouraging opposition from within the military.

Economic and social persecution are also used by the regime, targeting businesses and properties associated with opposition activities. For example, Hotel Urumaco and Hotel El Paso were shut down in May 2024 after hosting opposition events led by María Corina Machado. Similarly, small businesses, such as a restaurant in Guárico, were closed after serving opposition leaders. The closures were justified through fabricated regulatory violations, demonstrating the regime’s use of bureaucratic tools to intimidate and financially cripple supporters of the opposition.

The Maduro regime combines the tactics above with psychological pressure to weaken the opposition. Authorities temporarily detain opposition members and then release them, subjecting them to lengthy legal procedures designed to induce stress and uncertainty. For example, in July 2024, Milciades Ávila, the head of security for opposition leader María Corina Machado, was detained and released after 24 hours without explanation. The regime also uses unidentified security forces to disappear activists and opposition leaders, creating a climate of fear. In August 2024, Américo De Grazia, a former mayor and opposition figure, was disappeared by unidentified security forces and held incommunicado (detainees are denied any contact with the outside world, including their families, legal representation, and independent observers).

Torture remains a cornerstone of Maduro’s psychological repression. Political prisoners frequently endure physical abuse, including beatings, electric shocks, and suffocation, as well as psychological torture such as solitary confinement and sleep deprivation. Jesús Armas, an opposition leader disappeared by security forces in December 2024, was suffocated with plastic bags and severely beaten to force a confession regarding opposition activities. Further testimonies secretly recorded by Jesús Medina, a journalist in the Ramo Verde prison, revealed systematic torture inflicted on prisoners. Victims reported skull fractures, starvation, repeated physical assaults, and medical neglect. These methods are designed to extract forced confessions, which the regime can then use to delegitimize the opposition and reinforce narratives of treason and conspiracy.

The ongoing siege on the Argentine Embassy exemplifies Maduro’s use of psychological warfare on an international scale. Security forces surrounded the embassy, cut off water and electricity, and positioned armed guards and drones to intimidate the six asylum seekers inside the embassy. This pressure proved effective, as Fernando Martínez Mottola, a former minister under Carlos Andrés Pérez, surrendered to authorities after nine months inside the embassy.

The regime manipulates public perception by selectively releasing lower-level political prisoners to signal good faith while continuing arrests and executions of higher-level opposition members. Starting in November 2024, Venezuela’s government began releasing some of the thousands of detainees arrested during and after the July presidential election, following mounting domestic and international pressure. On November 16, 2024, authorities freed 107 prisoners, many of whom were low-level protesters or children. Despite this, the regime escalated repression in December 2024. On December 24, Luis Tarbay, a prominent activist and coordinator of the Mundo Con Venezuela initiative, was disappeared by unidentified security forces. His abduction came just days after Venezuela’s Public Ministry announced the release of over 900 political prisoners, in a calculated effort to deflect criticism. Many freed detainees reported ongoing surveillance, harassment, and restrictions on their activities, demonstrating that their release did not guarantee freedom from persecution. Others, like Jesús Álvarez, died in custody under suspicious circumstances before their cases could be reviewed.

Within the military, Maduro relies on extensive counterintelligence operations led by the Directorate General of Military Counterintelligence (DGCIM) to crush dissent. The DGCIM monitors officers, conducts raids, and enforces loyalty through fear. In October 2024, the regime arrested multiple high-ranking officers, including General Ramón Cruells, accusing them of treason and plotting against the government. These arrests reinforced paranoia and prevented the emergence of organized opposition within the armed forces.

Opposition Resilience and Adaptation

Despite the ongoing repression, the opposition demonstrates remarkable resilience by maintaining a decentralized structure that allows it to continue operations despite the arrests of key figures. Local leaders, unions, and community organizers sustain protests and mobilization efforts even as top figures face imprisonment. For example, following the January 2024 arrests of 14 opposition figures, including members of Vente Venezuela, local activists quickly reorganized protests and shifted leadership roles to avoid disruption. This adaptability ensures the movement remains active and capable of responding swiftly to government crackdowns. Additionally, unions have played a crucial role in labor strikes against government policies, with teachers and healthcare workers organizing protests over deteriorating wages and working conditions.

The opposition also leverages social media platforms like X, Instagram, and Facebook to expose human rights abuses, counter government propaganda, and rally supporters. Frequent updates about arrests, disappearances, and protests keep repression in the public eye and prevent the regime from silencing dissent. For example, Vente Venezuela’s human rights division frequently posts about detained members, sharing their stories to humanize their struggles and highlight ongoing abuses. On December 23, 2024, Orlando Moreno of Vente DDHH conducted interviews with the families of Juan Freites, Luis Camacaro, and Guillermo López, opposition leaders who were arrested over 11 months ago.¹³⁶ These posts detailed the emotional toll on their families and the poor conditions faced by detainees, sustaining pressure on the regime and rallying support for their release. On December 23, 2024, Vente Venezuela reposted warnings from Eugenia Olavarría Meda, the daughter of Magallí Meda, one of five activists seeking asylum in the Argentine Embassy, about shortages of food and water drawing international attention to the ongoing siege.

Social media also enables rapid communication and mobilization. During the protests following the July 2024 elections, organizers used encrypted messaging apps like WhatsApp and Telegram to coordinate demonstrations and evade state surveillance. Campaigns like the “freedom empanadas,” where street vendors wrapped food in anti-government messages, became viral symbols of defiance, boosting morale and spreading awareness. Such creative strategies allow the opposition to bypass state-controlled media and maintain visibility.

The opposition effectively mobilizes Venezuela’s large diaspora to shed light on the regime’s abuses and sustain international pressure. Exiled activists and organizations lobby foreign governments, international bodies, and human rights organizations to maintain sanctions and diplomatic scrutiny against Maduro’s government. For example, in August 2024, the Venezuelan diaspora organized coordinated protests in more than 373 cities worldwide, including Buenos Aires, Madrid, Miami, New York City, Tokyo, and Sydney.¹³⁷ These demonstrations drew thousands of participants, waving Venezuelan flags and chanting slogans condemning the Maduro regime.

Diaspora networks also play a vital role in funding opposition activities, supporting families of detained activists, and disseminating information blocked by government censorship. These networks amplify the voices of those inside Venezuela, ensuring the regime’s abuses remain a global issue. The opposition’s international presence strengthens its ability to challenge the regime’s legitimacy while providing material and logistical support to activists on the ground.

Despite international outreach, the opposition retains legitimacy and broad support within Venezuela. María Corina Machado exemplifies this strategy by remaining in the country, symbolizing defiance and resilience. Her presence counters government narratives that the opposition operates primarily from abroad and is propped up by foreign intelligence agencies like the CIA. Machado’s continued visibility has allowed her to lead protests and speak out against repression, even as the government attempts to silence her. For example, after the disputed July elections, Machado went into hiding due to the threat of arrest but continued to lead the opposition. She periodically emerged to attend protests and publicly address supporters.

Comparative Analysis: 2024 vs. Past Movements (Juan Guaidó)

Juan Guaidó’s movement in 2019 initially gained rapid international recognition but lacked widespread internal support within Venezuela. His movement lacked integration with grassroots organizations, unions, and local communities, making it difficult to sustain momentum, especially after he fled the country. Guaidó’s reliance on external legitimacy rather than internal alliances allowed Maduro to paint him as a puppet of U.S. imperialism, undermining his credibility with Venezuelans. When Guaidó went into exile, Maduro capitalized on this narrative, portraying him as disconnected from the realities of ordinary Venezuelans. Guaidó’s failure to secure defections from the military further weakened his position, as the armed forces remained loyal to Maduro, fearing retribution or loss of power.

The current opposition has adopted a more decentralized leadership structure, reducing its vulnerability to targeted repression. Leaders like María Corina Machado and Edmundo González have cultivated stronger ties to unions, student groups, and local movements, creating a broader support base. This grassroots integration has allowed the opposition to better mobilize protests and sustain pressure on the regime. Moreover, the expanded use of social media and encrypted communication channels has enabled activists to bypass state censorship and coordinate efforts more effectively. However, the opposition still struggles to gain meaningful support from Venezuela’s military and police forces. While some former military officers have joined the opposition, the armed forces and police remain largely loyal to Maduro due to fear of reprisals, economic dependence, and internal surveillance by counterintelligence agencies. This lack of institutional backing makes it significantly harder to unseat Maduro, as the security apparatus continues to enforce his rule and suppress dissent.

Analysis And Assessment

Sustained Support: Likely (~55-75%)

Continued internal and external pressure, effective use of social media, and symbolic leadership efforts are likely to maintain widespread support. However, visible participation declined in later months due to repression and fatigue.

Protest Organization: Very Likely (~80-90%)

Public frustration, economic instability, and unresolved grievances suggest a high probability of further protests. The opposition demonstrated consistent organizational capacity, adapting to increased crackdowns by using international channels and social media platforms.

Government Repression: Almost Certain (>90%)

The Maduro regime consistently escalated its repression efforts, particularly after July's disputed elections. Arrests and violent crackdowns persisted, limiting opposition visibility but failing to quell underlying dissatisfaction.

Closing Remarks

The Venezuelan opposition has shown remarkable resilience and adaptability throughout 2024, leveraging a decentralized leadership structure and grassroots networks to sustain pressure on the Maduro regime. Figures like María Corina Machado and Edmundo González have broadened their support base by aligning with unions, student groups, and local activists while effectively utilizing social media and the Venezuelan diaspora. Despite these achievements, the opposition continues to face significant structural challenges. The loyalty of the military and police to Maduro remains a critical barrier to political change. The regime’s brutal repression has succeeded in suppressing visibility and instilling fear, contributing to protest fatigue and declining participation in later months.

While public dissatisfaction and organizational capacity suggest a high probability of continued protests, the opposition’s momentum hangs in the balance. The January 10th inauguration represents a pivotal moment. Failure to capitalize on this date with a visible and impactful challenge to Maduro’s legitimacy risks accelerating the fragmentation and exhaustion of the movement. To sustain its momentum, the opposition must focus on maintaining international support, adapting strategies to counter repression, and building trust among key sectors, including the military and police. Without these efforts, the movement may face further degradation, potentially reducing its capacity to mount future challenges to Maduro’s rule.

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108. Valdés, I. (2024) Detienen a Pedro Tellechea, exministro de Petróleo de Venezuela, CNN. Available at: https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2024/10/21/detienen-a-pedro-tellechea-exministro-de-petroleo-de-venezuela

109. Venezuelan authorities reject accusation of local opposition leader’s murder (2024) Reuters. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-party-says-local-leader-state-custody-found-dead-2024-10-25/

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111. Moleiro, A. (2024) La persecución a María Alejandra Díaz, La Abogada chavista que se atrevió a cuestionar el resultado en Venezuela, El País América. Available at: https://elpais.com/america/2024-11-10/la-persecucion-a-maria-alejandra-diaz-la-abogada-chavista-que-atrevio-a-cuestionar-el-resultado-en-venezuela.html

112. Diario La Verdad de Vargas (2024) El Dirigente Político Juan Barreto Introdujo un documento ante La Fiscalía general Para solicitar La Liberación de Cientos de Detenidos Luego de las elecciones presidenciales del #28jul. , Facebook. Available at: https://www.facebook.com/reel/380695491700856

113. Vladimir Padrino López Aplicó ‘Movida de mata’ al remover a Jefes Militares de las Zodi (2024) LaPatilla.com. Available at: https://www.lapatilla.com/2024/11/14/vladimir-padrino-lopez-aplico-movida-de-mata-al-remover-a-jefes-militares-de-los-zodi/

114. Valdés, I. (2024) El Ministerio Público de Venezuela confirma El Fallecimiento en Prisión Preventiva de opositor, CNN. Available at: https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2024/11/15/venezuela-lamenta-el-fallecimiento-en-prision-jesus-manuel-martinez-medina-orix

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117. Arianna Pinto Está Presa en el hospital de Tinaquillo: Líder de una ubch la denunció por terrorismo (2024) El Pitazo . Available at: https://elpitazo.net/cronicas/arianna-pinto-esta-presa-en-el-hospital-de-tinaquillo-lider-de-una-ubch-la-denuncio-por-terrorismo/

118. El Régimen de Nicolás Maduro mantiene El Asedio a la embajada de argentina en Caracas (2024) infobae. Available at: https://www.infobae.com/venezuela/2024/11/24/el-regimen-de-nicolas-maduro-mantiene-el-asedio-a-la-embajada-de-argentina-en-caracas/

119. Un general y otros nueve militares detenidos por presunta traición a la patria (2024) TalCual. Available at: https://talcualdigital.com/un-general-y-otros-nueve-militares-detenidos-por-traicion-a-la-patria/

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121. ¿Quién es nahuel Agustín Gallo, El Gendarme Argentino Detenido en Venezuela? (2024) CNN. Available at: https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2024/12/20/argentina/quien-es-nahuel-agustin-gallo-venezuela-orix

122. Moleiro, A. (2024) El Gobierno de Maduro publica Las primeras fotos de Rocío San Miguel en prisión, El País América. Available at: https://elpais.com/america/2024-12-12/el-gobierno-de-maduro-publica-las-primeras-fotos-de-rocio-san-miguel-en-prision.html

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125. El Crudo Testimonio del Hijo de Jesús álvarez, Preso Político de Maduro: ‘vine para que me entregaran a mi padre en libertad y me llevo UN cuerpo fallecido’ (2024) infobae. Available at: https://www.infobae.com/venezuela/2024/12/14/el-crudo-testimonio-del-hijo-de-jesus-alvarez-preso-politico-de-maduro-vine-para-que-me-entregaran-a-mi-padre-en-libertad-y-me-llevo-un-cuerpo-fallecido/

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127. Murió otro preso político en venezuela tras las denuncias de negligencia en el tratamiento de su salud (2024) infobae. Available at: https://www.infobae.com/venezuela/2024/12/16/murio-otro-preso-politico-en-venezuela-tras-las-denuncias-de-negligencia-en-el-tratamiento-de-su-salud/

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129. Uno de los Seis opositores Venezolanos Asilados en la Embajada de Argentina en caracas deja la sede diplomática (2024) CNN. Available at: https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2024/12/20/venezuela/opositor-venezolano-asilado-deja-sede-diplomatica-orix

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131. La Dictadura de Maduro realizó una violenta requisa en la cárcel de ramo verde donde hay presos políticos militares: Al Menos Tres heridos de Bala (2024) infobae. Available at: https://www.infobae.com/venezuela/2024/12/20/la-dictadura-de-maduro-realizo-una-violenta-requisa-en-la-carcel-de-ramo-verde-donde-hay-presos-politicos-militares-hay-heridos-de-bala/

132. Vente Venezuela denuncia La Desaparición Forzada del activista Luis tarbay en víspera de navidad (2024) NTN24. Available at: https://www.ntn24.com/noticias-actualidad/vente-venezuela-denuncia-la-desaparicion-forzada-del-activista-luis-tarbay-en-vispera-de-navidad-530352

133. Detenido dirigente de PJ en falcón, Machado denuncia ‘Represión Desenfrenada’ (2024) TalCual. Available at: https://talcualdigital.com/detenido-dirigente-de-pj-en-falcon-machado-denuncia-represion-desenfrenada/

134. Venezuela Investigative Unit (2023) In Lara, Venezuela, criminal ‘colectivos’ control public services, InSight Crime. Available at: https://insightcrime.org/news/in-lara-venezuela-criminal-colectivos-control-public-services/

135. Lawfare definition in American English | collins english dictionary (no date) Collins Dictionary. Available at: https://www.collinsdictionary.com/us/dictionary/english/lawfare

136. @orlandomorenove (2024) A 11 meses del secuestro de Juan Freites, Luis Camacaro y Guillermo López, jefes del Comando de Campaña ConVzla en Vargas, Yaracuy y Trujillo conversamos con sus familiares., X (formerly Twitter). Available at: https://x.com/orlandomorenove/status/1871355457195155842

137. Venezuelans around the world demonstrate to defend opposition’s victory claim (2024) NPR. Available at: https://www.npr.org/2024/08/18/g-s1-17511/venezuelans-demonstrations-opposition-election-victory-claim